The puzzling politics of Pakistan

On Saturday, Pakistan will hold a presidential "election," starting a process that could conceivably leave the country more democratic.
"Yes, if all the pieces fall in place it will be a semi-democracy of sorts," author Eric Margolis told CTV.ca. "But there are so many things can go wrong that it's really hard to say at this point."
The two main actors in this political drama are President Gen. Pervez Musharraf and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
Musharraf took control of the armed forces in 1998, promoted by then-prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The next year, he deposed Sharif and became Pakistan's de facto leader - the same year that Bhutto went into exile.
After 9/11, Musharraf grudgingly became an ally of the West's so-called war on terror -- although some think his government's forces have cracked down on foreign al Qaeda militants while being much gentler with the domestic Taliban. In return, al Qaeda has tried at least twice to kill Musharraf.
Musharraf is not in danger of losing the presidential election. Legislators are the voters, not citizens. The one wild card is if Pakistan's Supreme Court rules on Oct. 17 he wasn't a legitimate candidate in the first place because he is still head of the army.
However, his political legitimacy has come under attack, seriously weakening him.
In March, he suspended Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, chief justice of Pakistan's Supreme Court and an occasional thorn in the side of Musharraf's government. This triggered outraged protests. The Supreme Court ordered Chaudhry's reinstatement in July - a humiliation for Musharraf.
Another key incident occurred in July when Musharraf ordered the storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad, an act that left more than 100 dead. The mosque was a known hotbed of Islamist militancy, and the government's actions enraged Islamists, particularly in the tribal areas. Suicide bombing attacks against Pakistani troops immediately surged.
Musharraf has flirted with hardline Islamic parties in the past, but he has found himself needing some new friends.
Enter Bhutto, a long-time actor on Pakistan's political stage, but currently in exile.
Her father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, served as a president and prime minister of Pakistan in the 1970s. He founded the Pakistan People's Party, the group Benazir leads today, and is credited as being the father of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program.
Bhutto lost power in a 1977 coup to Gen. Zia Ul-Haq, then the chief of the army staff whom Bhutto had appointed. Bhutto was executed in 1979 for allegedly ordering the murder of a political opponent. Observers criticized his trial as a very shoddy affair.
Benazir Bhutto's role in Pakistan
Benazir spent most of the next five years in prison. She left for London in 1984. Her brother Shahnawaz was found dead in his French Riviera apartment in 1985.
In 1986, Benazir Bhutto, educated at Harvard and Oxford, returned to Pakistan. Two years later, Zia died in a mysterious plane crash. Bhutto's party won a majority in parliamentary elections that November, and she became prime minister at age 35.
By 1990, President Gulam Ishaq Khan had dismissed her government on charges of corruption - charges Bhutto denied.
Khan replaced her with Nawaz Sharif - a protégé of Zia.
Three years later, Bhutto won the prime ministership once again. In this period, she would support the Taliban of Afghanistan. Some say the military and intelligence services didn't give her much choice, but Margolis said, "she knew what she was doing."
Her government would be dismissed again on corruption allegations in 1996. That same year, her brother Murtaza, also politically active, was shot to death under murky circumstances.
Facing corruption charges she claimed were politically motivated, Bhutto left Pakistan in 1999, the same year Musharraf deposed Sharif. Musharraf wouldn't assume the presidency until 2001. Through political wrangling, he had his 1999 coup retroactively legitimized.
As that shows, a wide variety of things are possible in the world of Pakistani politics.
Benazir Bhutto - who has support from the United States -- wants a few favours from Musharraf in exchange for her support after her return to Pakistan, scheduled for Oct. 18. She wants:
The corruption charges still hanging over her to be stayed (a deal has been reached);
Musharraf to step down as army chief - something Musharraf doesn't want to do until he's sure he's won another five-year term as president;
A constitutional amendment allowing politicians to serve a third term as prime minister;
- Reductions on the presidency's powers to dissolve Parliament and dismiss the government.
Bhutto's associates said some of these matters can wait until after parliamentary elections scheduled for January.
Margolis sees the presidential election as a fait accompli "that does little to add to Pakistan's democratic lustre."
However, the return of Bhutto - who commands real support in Pakistan -- and the prospect of genuine national parliamentary elections in January would be important developments, he said.
If the president loses the power to dissolve Parliament and dismiss the government, that would be a huge step forward for the country's stability, he said.
But still, there are problems.
"I've got to say this whole thing has become very complicated and convoluted," Margolis said, noting the Supreme Court decision not to rule on Musharraf's legitimacy as a presidential candidate until after the election.
Musharraf's officials have said he will respect the court ruling. Musharraf did respect the ruling on the reinstatement of Chaudhry.
"Pakistan, as I've always said, is a strange mixture of legalisms and illegalities," Margolis said. "They try and play by the rules, to be cricket. But at the same time, they'll send in gangsters in with bricks and daggers to wipe out people who don't co-operate."
Westerners should care about Pakistan, a Muslim nation of 161 million with tested nuclear weapons and proven delivery systems - and located in a strategically important, turbulent part of the world. For Canada, Pakistan is important to the ongoing mission in Afghanistan, he said.
Musharraf's government is foundering, with civil war a possibility. This gives the U.S.-backed Bhutto the leverage to push for changes that could leave the country more politically stable. "He needs her. He needs a life preserver of some kind, and she's the only one that's there," Margolis said.